Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

Gas Tax Holiday as a 419 Scam

Monday, May 5th, 2008

Rob sent me a link to his hilariously deadpan letter, which poses the purposed gas tax [1] [2] as a Nigerian 419 scam letter. It has everything:

  • Name drops important heads of state who need your help.
  • Provides a reason why your help is required
  • Offers a sum of money that you will receive for helping said party.
  • Requests that you send money to a foreign nation.

Luckily nether Hillary nor McCain will implement their plan this summer. But if they are elected to office we’ll be in for 4 years of awful plans just like this one. You, my non existent Indiana reader, I’m talking to you!

The rest of you are tired of hearing about this I bet. I know I am, but writing vents frustration. I reall like this question and answer from the bottom of an MSNBC article explaining things:

Is it true that oil prices have been purposely manipulated to permit drilling in Alaska (ANWAR) and in other areas of the U.S. that are protected?
– C. J., Canfield, Ohio
No.

More Gas Tax Holiday News

Tuesday, April 29th, 2008

After being a sleeper story for the last few weeks this just in, Hillary Clinton supports McCain’s gas tax holiday, “but Sen. Barack Obama says the plan is a quick fix that would do more harm than good.” Thank you Barack for being smart and not just latching on to a popular idea that is actually awful. Obama described the tax holiday as a “political scheme that would save the average driver $25 to $28. ‘It’s typical of how Washington works — let’s find some short-term, quick fix, even though we’re not really doing anything.'” Now lets look at what Clinton said:

Clinton, who rejected a similar idea in 2000, said her plan is different from McCain’s. She said the Republican’s proposal would cost the government up to $10 billion — money that is used to improve roads.

Well, at least she realizes what the costs are, something McCain failed to mention at all. Does that give her points? She, would close this shortfall with a “‘windfall profits tax’ on oil companies, meaning their profits over a certain amount would be subject to a 50 percent tax.” Obama is also purposing such a windfall tax. I’m not sure how I feel about this idea. Oil companies need ridiculously huge profits (in strict dollar amounts) to pay for the ridiculously high costs of exploring and drilling in new oil fields. So one would need to set that amount as very high absolute number or risk destroying the oil market by making it unprofitable for all players.

Clinton would use the money from the windfall tax to improve roads covering the shortfall created by the tax holiday. Obama would use it to subsidize gas purchases for low income families, eliminating the need for the holiday. Obama’s plan seems reasonable on the surface. It seems like it would really help people who probably need it most, as opposed to the tax holiday which helps every currently living American out in a very tiny amount. The tax holiday doesn’t help future generations, but then subsidized gas for any segment of the population fails that test as well. In the end this is just another reason dumb people will vote for Clinton and screw the country. Do I sound disillusioned yet?

More on this from a day late msnbc article:

Many economists implicitly agreed with Obama and said the McCain-Clinton gas tax plan sent the wrong signal on energy efficiency and was at odds with their pledges to combat climate change by encouraging lower U.S. carbon emissions.

“I think it is a very bad idea,” said Gilbert Metclaf, a economics professor at Tufts University….

Economists also saw it is a poor way of getting money to the households that need it most and warned that it might end up in the cash tills of the oil companies.

“If you want to provide households tax relief, a direct rebate … is more effective. Not all of the tax relief from a gas tax holiday will be passed on to consumers. Some will likely be kept by refiners,” Mankiw said

That part, which is at the end of the article really helps sell me on Obama’s plan, which I originally viewed some skepticism. I really should start reading mankiw’s blog like Rob does.

McCain’s Gax Tax Holiday

Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008

On April 15th, according to this article, John McCain called for a gas tax holiday, explained below:

To help people weather the downturn [in the economy] immediately, McCain urged Congress to institute a “gas-tax holiday” by suspending the 18.4 cent federal gas tax and 24.4 cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day. By some estimates, the government would lose about $10 billion in revenue. He also renewed his call for the United States to stop adding to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and thus lessen to some extent the worldwide demand for oil.

This is pretty much the worst idea I have heard in the entire presidential race. For example, it would be a better idea to elect Ron Paul and eliminate the IRS. Lets examine the economics. First let us ignore the possibly dubious (to crazy right wing pudits) idea that high oil prices driving alternative energy research is a good thing, and assume that we want low oil prices. In this scenario it is still a bad idea.

Why eliminate it during those dates?
Well, that is the “summer driving season,” when every family in America has the god given right to drive from their home to Dinseyworld, the Grand Canyon, or wherever else they may like to go.
How do they get there?
Interstate highways.
What does eliminating the federal gas taxes do?
It severely reduces funding for highway maintenance and construction.
What’s the problem?
Reduction in gas prices encourages more families to drive on highways for their holiday.
Whats the end result?
Highways turn to mush as we don’t have the money to pay for their upkeep.
Surely that wouldn’t happen from a temporary moratorium.
You know what happens when tax decreases lapse? All the anti tax people get up in arms saying that politicians are raising taxes. John McCain faces this very issue on the Bush tax cuts, which will soon lapse. He was against the cuts, but now must be against the lapsing of the cuts because it’s an election year. Long story short:temporary my ass.

I for one would much prefer to be able to drive on a highway in 10 years and spend more on gas, than not be able to drive on a highway in 10 years cause they don’t exist/are horrible roads. Of course, maybe, just maybe, McCain’s goal is to destroy our highway infrastructure in the long run — forcing us to use less gasoline cause we can’t drive anywhere. Somehow I doubt this. Of course, the analysis when you consider that in the long run we don’t want to burn oil to move people and goods is much stronger. However, I think that any fiscal conservative could be swayed by the argument presented here.

Now, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve itself; that is a good idea. Oil is important and set to increase in value over the long run, so buying oil now and putting it in storage is a great investment. Now, I always think, in the very long term, that all that stored oil is going to be super useful in 2100 when we want to fly around military jet fighters to protect ourselves. You know, because the world is pretty much out of oil (allow me some fudge room on that date will ya). Sadly, that is not the goal of the reserve. The goal of the reserve is to mitigate future temporary supply disruptions. Given that goal, this is a debatable step that should be discussed. Effectively, not filling the reserve indicates that we:

  1. Do not expect supply disruptions of the kind that would exhaust the reserve.
  2. Expect the price of oil to drop over the next few years.

Well, if Iraq ever becomes an exporter again, the price will be sure to drop, but other than that I doubt it. Although, it is getting to the point where you’d think it must come down. If we don’t invade Iran or anyone else, and prices remain high, I don’t see how the producers could afford a disruption. So there on one count, maybe the on the other — so its a question of motivation really. And at this point the argument relies on the idea that we should free ourselves from oil — both foreign and domestic. So I’ll just leave it at that.

This is What I Have Been Saying

Saturday, April 19th, 2008

Finally the numbers show that most people have gotten the message. Hillary Clinton is not honest. This Washington Post article is chock full of interesting numbers on the topic. From TFA:

Clinton is viewed as "honest and trustworthy" by just 39 percent of Americans, according to a new Washington PostABC News poll, compared with 52 percent in May 2006. Nearly six in 10 said in the new poll that she is not honest and trustworthy. And now, compared with Obama, Clinton has a deep trust deficit among Democrats, trailing him by 23 points as the more honest, an area on which she once led both Obama and John Edwards.

Keith Olbermann

Tuesday, March 4th, 2008

Here’s another Keith Olbermann video that seemed worth a watch for those interested in the last week or so’s worth of political maneuvering in the democratic primaries. He’s not as worked up about things as he was in the last video I linked to. But that’s a good thing, as a more calm collected approach is what’s usually required for news-casting. I’m beginning to respect this guy in much the same way I used to mistakenly respect Soledad O’Brien, and still much respect Brian Williams. Also, I just want to go on the record saying that Jon Stewart needs to bring back the Giant Head of Brian Williams sketch and do it more often. It’s so damn funny!

More, More, More More, More

Friday, February 15th, 2008

I feel a bit like the title and tone of my last post, was more downtrodden on Hillary than the facts supported. Clearly, in such a lopsided congressional vote, her presence was not missed, and at least some of her supporters to look upon telecom immunity unfavorably. But this last week has been one of the most important battles for civil liberties of the decade, and she wasn’t to be bothered.

The House has recessed for the weekend, well looks like they are off until Feb. 25th. They left having called Bush’s bluff. The Protect America Act will expire tomorrow, for the good of the country, because the house did not cave they did not pass a bad law. They in fact did nothing when the only alternative was to do a bad thing. If you don’t agree with me yet, or if you just want to see a television pundit get all worked up about this issue you should check out Keith Olbermann’s “scathing rebuke of President Bush.” Just like my local peers and the Obama campaign, I’ve not seen any television pundit ever get so energized before in my life.

Too Busy To Vote, Hillary?

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008

Just when we needed another reason not to vote for Hillary Clinton, we get one. The Senate today voted down an amendment to the permanent Protect America Act replacement bill, which as you know really pushes my buttons. The amendment in question would have removed telecom’s retroactive immunity from the bill. And what does this have to do with Clinton, well she didn’t vote on it! The most important privacy related legislation that will be considered in the entire year and she can’t even be in Washington to vote on it! Now now, I know that her presidential campaign is imploding as we speak, but maybe if she actually did her current job well, then that wouldn’t be happening!

The vote was 69 against the amendment and 29 for it. That means two people didn’t vote. We know one was Clinton. We know that Barack Obama was one of the 29 people who voted for the amendment. Now here is a real kicker, at least John McCain showed up to vote on the amendment, I mean he did vote the wrong way, but he is at least showing up for work. I’m not sure who the other abstention is, apparently no one important. Now, 18 democrats are on the side of that 69 who voted for the amendment. We’ll have to get their names and beat them up on election day as well. The bill as a whole passed the senate later today in a 68 – 29 vote. This vote is filibuster proof, by 2 votes, so Chris Dodd’s promise to do so is of little help. The only hope at this point is that the House of Representatives, which passed a incompatible version of the bill, does not budge from its position. The House version does not include retroactive immunity.

Let me explain why this bill pushes my buttons so much. Not giving away get-out-of-jail-free-retroactive-immunities (isn’t
ex-post-facto banned by the constitution) would be a good start, but there is so much opportunity here. Lets look at what Bush is saying about the bill.

Bush has pledged to veto any bill without immunity, and he said Tuesday that he would not accept any more temporary FISA extensions. By midnight Saturday, when a stop-gap extension expires, Bush said he will get what he wants or do nothing to stop what he says are vital gaps in intelligence collection from re-opening.

Bush is throwing a tantrum over this, he will either get what he wants or he will take his ball and go home. That’s perfect! Well, only if you think that spying without warrants is bad. I can not be convinced that it is that hard to get a warrant. If the democrats give Bush something reasonable, then he’ll veto it, and we’ll be back to our pre-illegal-warrantless-wiretapping status quo. Democrats were elected in 2006 to, in part, return us to this status quo. Now, it may be political suicide to say, oh we’ll just let these things expire cause that is what we want to do. But there is a perfect opportunity here, to provide some reasonable additional powers which satisfy political needs to look “hard on terror,” and then Bush has said he’ll veto them, and we get the end result we desire without the political ramifications! Win Win! Lets hope the House is thinking just this. Come on Pelosi, this should be just your style.

Here are some more updates. Looks like the House democrats are standing up for a change! No matter where they found their spine, lets just hope it doesn’t break. Also in the link this choice quote from Sen. Kennedy:

The President has said that American lives will be sacrificed if Congress does not change FISA. But he has also said that he will veto any FISA bill that does not grant retro-active immunity. No immunity, no FISA bill. So if we take the President at his word, he’s willing to let Americans die to protect the phone companies.

Note: that of course the president is flat wrong on the idea that we need this bill to avoid loss of life, we’ll still be plenty protected by what we had before he decided warrantless wiretaps were needed.

Super Tues…. Mardi Gras?

Tuesday, February 5th, 2008

If there is one thing I don’t remember about Mardi Gras in Mobile, AL when I lived there, it was my parents voting in an election, but strangely enough politics and parades are colliding in Alabama today. The chaining date is, of course, one of the more quirky aspects of the holiday. Its 50 days before Easter, which, like my spring break when I went to catholic school, is determined by the phases of the moon — how archaic! I remember it being in early March once during a leap year and they held fantastic parades on the 29th. Of course the election process also moved this year, seemingly more than in the past, and today the two collide — oh I already used that metaphor.

Mardi Gras is by far the best holiday I can remember. We got a random Tuesday in February off school to go downtown and catch all kind of wholesome goodies: plastic cups (which I still use to this day, though the Mardi Gras emblems have faded), beads, candy, and best of all banana and strawberry flavored moon pies. Oh and my mom’s special Mardi Gras turkey, for lunch. I loved then, as I do now, going into the city for just about any reason, even though the city was much smaller back then. It was just so much fun, and downtown Mobile had this inescapable lazy Sunday French charm about it — very refreshing to imagine. Now, add to all of that election excitement, that would be a blast.

I learned too late last night, that Obama was here in South Boston at the last rally before the voting. I’m not sure that Massachusetts is the politically savvy state to hold such a rally in, maybe California would be better, but I wish I had known and gone. Although, i doubt they had moon pies, so I’d still rather be in Alabama last night, but that wasn’t on the docket — hopping the T to the convention center could have been. I guess he did goto Harvard Law School, and with all those Kennedy endorsements its not a bad place to be. Anyways, my part is done, it was quiet and rainy outside the firehouse in line. Not a long line, it took maybe 10 minutes. The sweet sounds of the rain, which woke me up this morning before I rolled over again for another few hours, was only broken by the sound of a car horn as it drove past the two girls standing holding rain soaked Barack Obama signs across the street. And then by their subsequent noises of glee, mostly shouting and giggling.

There weren’t any supporters for any other candidate outside the polling place. I did pass some Hillary supporters with their 4 sign tall posts standing in the middle of Davis square as I drove to work after voting, just like they were yesterday, when they were upstaged by the Ron Paul supporters, who left a small sticker on a traffic sign and departed to make better use of their man power. There were two similar Obama supporters holding one rain soaked sign each. Even after voting, I’m too excited for the results, I couldn’t avoid searching out news and writing this post. If you haven’t made up your mind yet, I have another video link; don’t mind that it is by Lawrence Lessig, whom I’ve already linked to as a supporter via xkcd. It makes a slow solid argument that you can self evaluate, as is appropriate at this stage in the game.

January 2008 Numbers

Monday, February 4th, 2008

No not the the poll numbers for the election, but the aim chat numbers. Everyone seemed to like them before, so why not again. Well cause now short term trends can be identified, thats why, but hey, its a slow news day, and the chart has pretty colors, so why not. Plus there was a 16% up tick in the total amount for the top 10 from December to January, and I like talking to you all. Yes I realize that is a correlation not a causation (just as with this interesting study on books using a data set mined from facebook), but I’m really not too concerned about that with this data. Its not like were trying to say that reading The Holy Bible will make you dumber or anything.

Rank Bytes Name Dec 2007 Rank
1
749239 Kelly
1
2
416461 Paul
2
3
103068 OSU Paul
6
4
75558 Josh
5
5
71797 Beth
7
6
41277 Jed
4
7
38823 George
11
8
27145 Zack
9
9
25370 Krishna
12
10
20439 My Parents
8

Barack Obama

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

You should all head over to blag.xkcd.com and read his latest post. Yes that is right all six of you can make a difference next week. Well, except for the one who’s not voting, and the 3 of you in Ohio who have to wait until March 4th. That leaves 2 of you, humm, did I miss anyone? While you’re at it (and while i’m on this soap box, here’s a little bit from a conservative point of view that was on digg. I didn’t watch the video (follow the link) he mentions yet, but I probably will.

Since I’m already making a political post today, and there is FISA/Protect America Act stuff going down, another link for updates on that.