Archive for the ‘Numbers & Statistics’ Category

Travel as a Graph

Sunday, April 4th, 2010

I have been averaging more than one trip a month since July of 2009, and it feels like a lot of travel, so I want to record some numbers about it in case I want to compare at some point. For the purposes of this accounting, a trip requires that I got on an airplane or stayed in a hotel while not in the Greater Boston Area. For the record I have not stayed in a hotel in the Greater Boston Area during the time period. Lets start with a graph:


The blue line is 1 if I was not home (away) and 0 if I was home on a given date. If i was traveling home on a day the line is a 1. The red line is 0 when I am home, 1 when I am traveling for work, and 0.5 when I am traveling for pleasure. Since the red line is on top of the blue, you can really just think of the blue as personal trips.

This tells us that I spent all of October in Boston, a fact I had forgotten. I have been averaging 1.3 trips per month divided between 0.5 personal trips per month and 0.8 work trips per month.

This has lead to a total traveling percentage of almost 32% of days. That is on any given day there is a 32% chance I’m not in Boston. I would have expected that number to be much higher, but the graph seems to agree with it. If we look only at 2010 only I’ve been gone for a slightly higher 36%, but I really feel like it’s been 50%. That’s the point of the analysis. I now know that 32% is way too high.

Low Probility Events

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

Last Sunday while playing a game of Settlers of Catan with Knights and Cities my friend Post rolled a corner. I went on to win the game of settlers, but we gave Post an honorary win for the dice roll. Which really, will be more memorable than the game. Of course, if it ever happens again I’m going to have to buy some new dice.

I mean, statistically speaking, it should be the most exciting thing that happened all week. This was of course a week in which the Boston Celtics won their 17th NBA Championship, Tiger Woods won the US Open in some sort of playoff sudden death thing, and I went to the beach after having dim sum for the first time. All somewhat unlikely things, but without crunching the numbers I’m going to go with the dice roll as the rarest event of the four.

It’s a good thing all those sporting events happened last week or that list would have been really short. Things with me have been pretty normal, following the familiar patterns of which I have grown tired. My new mantra, of sorts, is that I am moving in September.

I have, however, failed to make friends with enough people to avoid moving in with some more craig’s list randoms. Last week I started looking and I found a seemingly low probability find (aka it sounded awesome). They responded quickly, to say that they were busy and would let me know when they’re free. I’m thinking that was a line since I haven’t heard anything. But I’m not jaded on the housing search yet, hopefully I find a place before that happens.

Did I Miss Febuary?

Sunday, April 13th, 2008

The latest, and not so latest AIM statistics with pretty pictures. Sorry that the pie for March turned out larger than the one for February — February had about 40% more total bytes than did March, which is not reflected in the pie charts at all.

March

Rank Bytes Name All Time Rank
1
225420 Kelly
6
2
194247 Paul
1
3
87526 Jed
12
4
34976 Josh
4
5
26406 My Parents
10
6
8694 Zack
18
7
7441 EC
16
8
7133 Rob
11
9
4859 Angad
82
10
4582 Matt
7

February

Rank Bytes Name Jan 2008 Rank
1
278174 Kelly
1
2
207910 Paul
2
3
101042 Beth
5
4
46607 Josh
4
5
44959 Jed
6
6
43532 OSU Paul
3
7
31117 George
7
8
30981 My parents
10
9
28925 Rob
11
10
22788 Matt
14

A Car is a Vehicle…

Friday, February 29th, 2008

It seems that no matter what time I leave work, there is always a bus at the bus stop waiting to pick people up as I walk past it to my car. In reality there is a bus every 15 minutes on the quarter hours, and I just happen to leave at nice quater hour times. In any case, it makes me feel kinda bad to just walk past it and get in my car, when I could just as easily save some steps and hop on the bus. I took the bus for two months, when I didn’t have a car, and I still pay for a monthly T pass — I could hop on at no additional cost.

Today , I came to a new justification for why I bought a car a year ago, and continue to skip the bus in favor of it. The bus takes over an hour to get to the end of the subway line, which is about 20 minutes from my apartment on average. That is a long time. The car takes about 25-45 minutes, depending on traffic.

The car is vehicle, by which I can transform money into time.

It takes a whole lot of money and provides an hour a day or so of time which I can use to accomplish things that can not be done on a bus (there are additional morning time savings). That doesn’t seem very efficient, given the high cost of a car. But really, it’s very difficult to actually turn money into time. Other than increasing your travel speed, the primary way is to pay people to do things for you, like cook, clean, and laundry which is also expensive.

Anyways, I feel perfectly happy to purchase time at the exchange rate offered by a car. Thinking of it in those terms gets my mind away from the whole energy/pollution efficiency of mass transit. Rough estimates show that I spend about $28 a day on my car (gas, loan payments, upkeep, & insurance), which by rough estimates are similar to the value of an hour of my time (or less) — which is of course why I am perfectly happy with the exchange rate. I just thought it was an interesting thought, enough to share.

Too Busy To Vote, Hillary?

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008

Just when we needed another reason not to vote for Hillary Clinton, we get one. The Senate today voted down an amendment to the permanent Protect America Act replacement bill, which as you know really pushes my buttons. The amendment in question would have removed telecom’s retroactive immunity from the bill. And what does this have to do with Clinton, well she didn’t vote on it! The most important privacy related legislation that will be considered in the entire year and she can’t even be in Washington to vote on it! Now now, I know that her presidential campaign is imploding as we speak, but maybe if she actually did her current job well, then that wouldn’t be happening!

The vote was 69 against the amendment and 29 for it. That means two people didn’t vote. We know one was Clinton. We know that Barack Obama was one of the 29 people who voted for the amendment. Now here is a real kicker, at least John McCain showed up to vote on the amendment, I mean he did vote the wrong way, but he is at least showing up for work. I’m not sure who the other abstention is, apparently no one important. Now, 18 democrats are on the side of that 69 who voted for the amendment. We’ll have to get their names and beat them up on election day as well. The bill as a whole passed the senate later today in a 68 – 29 vote. This vote is filibuster proof, by 2 votes, so Chris Dodd’s promise to do so is of little help. The only hope at this point is that the House of Representatives, which passed a incompatible version of the bill, does not budge from its position. The House version does not include retroactive immunity.

Let me explain why this bill pushes my buttons so much. Not giving away get-out-of-jail-free-retroactive-immunities (isn’t
ex-post-facto banned by the constitution) would be a good start, but there is so much opportunity here. Lets look at what Bush is saying about the bill.

Bush has pledged to veto any bill without immunity, and he said Tuesday that he would not accept any more temporary FISA extensions. By midnight Saturday, when a stop-gap extension expires, Bush said he will get what he wants or do nothing to stop what he says are vital gaps in intelligence collection from re-opening.

Bush is throwing a tantrum over this, he will either get what he wants or he will take his ball and go home. That’s perfect! Well, only if you think that spying without warrants is bad. I can not be convinced that it is that hard to get a warrant. If the democrats give Bush something reasonable, then he’ll veto it, and we’ll be back to our pre-illegal-warrantless-wiretapping status quo. Democrats were elected in 2006 to, in part, return us to this status quo. Now, it may be political suicide to say, oh we’ll just let these things expire cause that is what we want to do. But there is a perfect opportunity here, to provide some reasonable additional powers which satisfy political needs to look “hard on terror,” and then Bush has said he’ll veto them, and we get the end result we desire without the political ramifications! Win Win! Lets hope the House is thinking just this. Come on Pelosi, this should be just your style.

Here are some more updates. Looks like the House democrats are standing up for a change! No matter where they found their spine, lets just hope it doesn’t break. Also in the link this choice quote from Sen. Kennedy:

The President has said that American lives will be sacrificed if Congress does not change FISA. But he has also said that he will veto any FISA bill that does not grant retro-active immunity. No immunity, no FISA bill. So if we take the President at his word, he’s willing to let Americans die to protect the phone companies.

Note: that of course the president is flat wrong on the idea that we need this bill to avoid loss of life, we’ll still be plenty protected by what we had before he decided warrantless wiretaps were needed.

January 2008 Numbers

Monday, February 4th, 2008

No not the the poll numbers for the election, but the aim chat numbers. Everyone seemed to like them before, so why not again. Well cause now short term trends can be identified, thats why, but hey, its a slow news day, and the chart has pretty colors, so why not. Plus there was a 16% up tick in the total amount for the top 10 from December to January, and I like talking to you all. Yes I realize that is a correlation not a causation (just as with this interesting study on books using a data set mined from facebook), but I’m really not too concerned about that with this data. Its not like were trying to say that reading The Holy Bible will make you dumber or anything.

Rank Bytes Name Dec 2007 Rank
1
749239 Kelly
1
2
416461 Paul
2
3
103068 OSU Paul
6
4
75558 Josh
5
5
71797 Beth
7
6
41277 Jed
4
7
38823 George
11
8
27145 Zack
9
9
25370 Krishna
12
10
20439 My Parents
8

The Results are In

Tuesday, January 15th, 2008

and in 2007 Paul once again topped the list of people I talk to on aim. One advantage of keeping logs of every aim conversation I have is that I can pull out fun but meaningless statistics and blog about them.

The results from 2007

Rank Bytes Name 2006 Rank
1
4261221 Paul
1
2
2088617 Kelly
3
1782259 OSU Paul
7
4
950551 Josh
2
5
871658 Jed
10
6
682480 Beth
3
7
615125 Rob
8
8
294982 Matt
6
9
268387 George
11
10
247025 My Parents
12

Lets compare the 2007 results to the all time list:

Rank Bytes Name 2007 Rank
1
14142297 Paul
1
2
9390234 Beth
5
3
4807056 George
9
4
4350718 Josh
4
5
4167148 OSU Paul
3
6
2956684 Matt
8
7
2457418 Kelly
2
8
2282025 Christy
9
2067038 Jessica
10
1839941 My Parents
10

The Moral of this story is that Paul better watch out or least he lose his top spot in 2008. Although, Beth and Paul’s all time placements are not yet in jeopardy everyone else may need to take notice. These are the numbers for the last quarter of 2007:

Rank Bytes Name
1
1627836 Kelly
2
1131700 Paul
3
250167 Josh

The last time Paul didn’t take the top prize for a quarter of the year was Q2 (April – June) 2005:

Rank Bytes Name
1
843586 Josh
2
701362 George
3
640133 Paul

Anyways, hope you enjoyed the random charts and tables. Making all of this reminds me of the girl’s comment in frame 4 of xkcd 314. Oh and the bash script that grabs all the data (sorry for the bad formating):

match="2007-*"; for f in `ls /home/liryon/.purple/logs/aim/liryon`; do du -scb home/liryon/.purple/logs/aim/liryon/$f/$match | grep total | sed -e "s/total/$f/"; done 2> /dev/null | grep -v aolsystemmsg | sort -n -r | head -n 10

Tennis Pro

Friday, December 7th, 2007

In light of no longer having anything to do tonight I took it upon myself to get some “exercise” or at least fun, making level 2000 pro in wii Tennis:
Tennis Pro
I expected it to stop me at 2000, but it didn’t. Clearly, it is already off the chart. It appears that the max is expected to be ~2400, and that above ~2220 you only gain points (up to 5) for a 40-Love game. I am going to be satisfied with my 2003, unless I get really bored.

By somewhat popular demand, my wii. Designed in consultation with the room mates to get it just right. All theirs look like them as well, possibly that’ll be a post eventually.

Liryon

Unworthy

Tuesday, September 11th, 2007

I’m just sitting around listening to music. I’ve got a post I’ve been working on about the HD-DVD format war, but I don’t feel like working on it so I’m just going to write for a bit.

I spent Sunday watching some football and tennis in HD on my tv for the first time. Sports are good to watch in HD since you have to watch the commercials anyways because who cares about timeshifted sports, and currently I can’t do HD with the mythbox. One can’t routinely get the Red Sox games in HD without paying more for cable so I haven’t done this much despite watching more sporting events this summer than probably in my entire previous life. I was caught up by the new iPod Nano commercials.

What is that song! well its 1234 by Fiest, who is, of course, a female Canadian singer. At this point I’m not surprised, the fact that she’s another Canadian goes a long way towards explaining why I like. I seem to have this almost unnatural affinity for female Canadian singers, what else could explain why I just can’t stop listening to Avril. Due to Avril and Chantal Kreviazuk’s recent spat I learned that she too is Canadian. I’m sure there are more Canadians lurking in my music collection. Anyways I must have listened to 1234 100 times today at work. Still not tired of it.

It kicked off my listening tonight, which was doing a surprisingly good job of matching my disappointed with a touch of lonely and going to do something about it mood. The songs were

  1. Fiest – 1234
  2. Baech Boys – Feel Flows
  3. A Dawson’s Creek Instrumental
  4. Goo Goo Dolls – Flat Top
  5. Aladdin – One Jump Ahead
  6. Judy Collins – Amazing Grace
  7. Offsping – The Kids Aren’t Alright
  8. Frank Sinatra – The Way You Look Tonight


So, it was on the Frank Sinatra song that I went wow, these are matching up pretty good. Apparently I was completely oblivious to The Kids Aren’t Alright and Amazing Grace, and random was pretty random, it was just my perceptions that were not. In conclusion the music apparently was never much in mood, its certainly stopped being so now.

I don’t know why I thought this would be interesting. I guess it was more interesting the first time it went through my mind before I realized that I could be free writing it all. Then I went back and wrote the previous thoughts because once I started writing the present thoughts seemed unworthy. I guess I’m done till I come up with something more worthy.

MMMMPI

Thursday, May 24th, 2007

So a guy who lives on my street’s car (direct image link here) made the front page of digg.com today. I had been saving up my pics of it, which are still on my phone for a little write up on geeky cars I’ve seen and had time to snap a picture of while driving around Boston, but looks like someone beat me to it. As is often said, Picture or it didn’t happen, so here are some pictures from my craptastic phone as per usual. Note that these are taken in winter, I’ll post some more from today when I get home. Someone on digg suggested I buy my neighbor a beer, I’d be happy to, neighbor.

MMMMPI Winter 1 MMMMPI Winter 2 MMMMPI Spring 1 MMMMPI Spring 2