Indiana, I Didn’t Know

Look at that map. That map looks very, excitedly strange! It all due to the “Big Ten Battleground Poll,” a poll conducted by the University of Illinois, the University of Iowa, Michigan State University, the University of Michigan, Northwestern University, The Ohio State University, Pennsylvania State University and the University of Wisconsin over October 19-22. The results are somewhat unbelievable. They give Obama a 10 point lead in Indiana, which is a huge swing. It is enough of a swing to turn the average of polls (which is what the above map is based on) for Indiana in to the tossup category. The Ohio numbers (Obama +12) move the avergae to Obama+6, which is into the leaning category. The detailed results, which I had to take a look at are here. Obama may well need to revise his plan to throw some of that September $150millon at Georgia, South Carolina, North Dakota and Arizona to include Indiana.

I’ve pretty much had it with voters in Ohio, so I was and may continue to still write off Ohio as a lost cause. I think the more sure path to an Obama victory lies through Virgina and North Carolina. While this poll does not update the numbers for those two states, any chance of a swing in Indiana bodes very well for demographically the more Obama friendly North Carolina, which is my big call, based more on hope than on numbers at this point.

Comments are closed.